Chris Murphy
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Murphy has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.460 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 40th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (80th percentile). The soft spot is Command (19th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
132 batters faced · data through 2026-08-24.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Chris Murphy.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Chris Murphy | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .423 | .528 | 40th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 19th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 51st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Chris Murphy mixes his four-seam fastball (33%) and slider (30%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 3.4 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.7 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 50 bases vs a replacement arm's 67 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
6.0 bases saved vs league average, across 451 pitches — 1.3 per 100.
His sweeper, changeup, and sinker aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
Rarely used: slurve (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Chris Murphy's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sweeper, changeup, and sinker aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.439 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.459, based on 69 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.478 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.453 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.476 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.454 to 0.496, based on 64 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.336 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.439 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.336) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Chris Murphy.
over 84 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.20 · WHIP 1.37 · BABIP against 0.293 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GuardiansJun 24, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs TwinsJun 3, 2026
9 BF · 3 K, 2 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs GuardiansJul 2, 2026
5 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs Red SoxAug 6, 2026
4 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs YankeesJul 29, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Chris Murphy
HR allowed% down, BB% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.