Keegan Akin
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Akin sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.453 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 52nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (89th percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (23rd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
114 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Keegan Akin.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Keegan Akin | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .451 | .528 | 52nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 61st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 23rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Keegan Akin leans on his four-seam fastball (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 49 bases vs a replacement arm's 59 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.9 bases saved vs league average, across 443 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his slider tilts 20 points more toward lefties.
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Keegan Akin's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.422 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.399 to 0.443, based on 49 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.367 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.367) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.461 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.439 to 0.482, based on 65 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.459 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 6 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Keegan Akin earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 86 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.68 · WHIP 1.50 · BABIP against 0.313 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs NationalsJun 27, 2026
8 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.7
- vs Blue JaysJun 6, 2026
8 BF · 0 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.7
- vs DodgersJun 21, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs MarinersJun 9, 2026
5 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs AngelsJun 24, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
Trends
Multi-season trends · Keegan Akin
HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.