Nick Lodolo
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Lodolo allows more bases than most pitchers
The simulator expects him to allow 0.507 bases per batter faced, better than 1% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting home runs (17th percentile).
His grade rests on 486 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Nick Lodolo.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Nick Lodolo | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .593 | .527 | — |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 48th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 18% | 22% | 18th |
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
Nick Lodolo mixes his four-seam fastball (27%) and sinker (26%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the changeup has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 244 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 285 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He cost 41.4 bases against league average across 1,899 pitches, or 2.2 per 100 pitches.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his curveball tilts 23 points more toward lefties.
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Nick Lodolo's pitch movement, 2026
His Curveball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 3 have not.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.037 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.468 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.486, based on 116 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.549 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs LHB (0.549) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.505 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.488 to 0.521, based on 373 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.528 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
2 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.
5 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 7 more bases than their contact off Nick Lodolo deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Both bars count 333 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
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ERA 4.97 · WHIP 1.48 · BABIP against 0.300 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs BrewersJun 23, 2026
15 BF · 6 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +6.9
- vs D-backsJun 12, 2026score only
26 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 3 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 9.2
- Above replacement
- +6.0
- vs MetsMay 25, 2026score only
25 BF · 7 K, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 10.9
- Above replacement
- +3.8
- vs CardinalsJun 6, 2026score only
25 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 10 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 11.1
- Above replacement
- +3.6
- vs OriolesJul 5, 2026
26 BF · 4 K, 2 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 11.8
- Above replacement
- +3.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Nick Lodolo
Compared with last season, his xEB/PA is up, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is down.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.