Nick Lodolo
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Lodolo is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.500 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 2nd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (21st percentile).
338 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Nick Lodolo.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Nick Lodolo | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .597 | .528 | 2nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 49th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 27th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Nick Lodolo mixes his four-seam fastball (26%) and sinker (26%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 0.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 40% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 170 bases vs a replacement arm's 188 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
26.8 bases cost vs league average, across 1,321 pitches — 2.0 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his curveball tilts 28 points more toward lefties.
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Nick Lodolo's pitch movement, 2026
His Curveball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 3 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.469 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.450 to 0.489, based on 82 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.505 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.508 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.489 to 0.525, based on 258 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.533 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Nick Lodolo.
over 231 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.04 · WHIP 1.52 · BABIP against 0.317 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs BrewersJun 23, 2026
15 BF · 6 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +6.4
- vs D-backsJun 12, 2026
26 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 3 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 9.2
- Above replacement
- +5.2
- vs MetsMay 25, 2026
25 BF · 7 K, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 10.9
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs CardinalsJun 6, 2026
25 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 10 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 11.1
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs BrewersJun 29, 2026
20 BF · 4 K, 4 BB, 1 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.4
- Above replacement
- +2.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Nick Lodolo
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.