Brad Keller
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Keller sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.446 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 63rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (79th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
135 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Brad Keller.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Brad Keller | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .436 | .528 | 63rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 38th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 34th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Brad Keller mixes his four-seam fastball (32%) and slider (23%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 6.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 51 bases vs a replacement arm's 69 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
8.1 bases saved vs league average, across 533 pitches — 1.5 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 24 points more toward lefties.
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Brad Keller's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup and Sweeper have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.477 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.456 to 0.498, based on 66 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.347 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.347) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.438 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.460, based on 69 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.436 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 5 more bases than their contact off Brad Keller earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 87 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.02 · WHIP 1.34 · BABIP against 0.301 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs Red SoxMay 14, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs Red SoxMay 13, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs GuardiansMay 23, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs DodgersMay 30, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs PadresJun 2, 2026
4 BF · 0 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Brad Keller
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.