Sean Manaea
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Manaea is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.488 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 8th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (17th percentile).
506 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Sean Manaea.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Sean Manaea | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .633 | .528 | 8th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 69th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 63rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Sean Manaea mixes his four-seam fastball (39%) and sweeper (31%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sinker has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 253 bases vs a replacement arm's 282 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
35.4 bases cost vs league average, across 1,985 pitches — 1.8 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Sean Manaea's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 4 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.460 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.443 to 0.478, based on 163 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.472 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.500 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.483 to 0.516, based on 346 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.542 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.542) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 7 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 12 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 7 fewer bases than their contact off Sean Manaea earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 336 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.31 · WHIP 1.31 · BABIP against 0.300 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PiratesAug 9, 2026
25 BF · 11 K, 3 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.6
- Above replacement
- +5.3
- vs Blue JaysJun 29, 2026
23 BF · 4 K, 2 BB, 3 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.5
- Above replacement
- +4.3
- vs RockiesApr 24, 2026
15 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 4.7
- Above replacement
- +3.6
- vs PhilliesJun 18, 2026
23 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 6 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 9.2
- Above replacement
- +3.6
- vs AthleticsApr 12, 2026
9 BF · 4 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +3.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Sean Manaea
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.