Luis Severino
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Severino has been below average at limiting bases
The simulator expects him to allow 0.461 bases per batter faced, better than 36% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting walks (25th percentile).
His grade rests on 271 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Luis Severino.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Luis Severino | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .554 | .527 | — |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 25th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 56th |
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
Luis Severino mixes his sweeper (25%) and sinker (24%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 0.5 bases per 100 thrown against league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 126 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 159 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He cost 7.8 bases against league average across 1,040 pitches, or 0.8 per 100 pitches.
His slider isn't in the charts below, because only 46 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his cutter tilts 17 points more toward lefties.
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Luis Severino's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His slider isn't in these charts, because only 46 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.453 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.435 to 0.473, based on 153 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.477 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.412 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.392 to 0.431, based on 119 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.469 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042).
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
6 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.
5 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 6 more bases than their contact off Luis Severino deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Both bars count 173 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
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ERA 4.16 · WHIP 1.47 · BABIP against 0.317 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs RoyalsApr 29, 2026score only
25 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.7
- Above replacement
- +9.9
- vs AngelsMay 21, 2026score only
23 BF · 10 K, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 6.8
- Above replacement
- +6.7
- vs RangersApr 24, 2026score only
26 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 10.4
- Above replacement
- +4.8
- vs YankeesApr 8, 2026score only
22 BF · 7 K, 5 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.4
- Above replacement
- +4.5
- vs OriolesMay 10, 2026score only
25 BF · 4 K, 4 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 11.0
- Above replacement
- +3.6
Trends
Multi-season trends · Luis Severino
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up, his K% is up and his Barrel% against is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.