Luis Severino

2026

Athletics· RHP · throws R· 62.2 IP· 4.16 ERA· 1.47 WHIP· 271 BF

Grade

F28th percentile run prevention

StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Severino is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.484 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 28th percentile of qualified pitchers.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 396 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled.
271 batters faced · data through 2026-07-09.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Seranthony DomínguezWhite Sox

Sam BachmanAngels

Jacob LopezAthletics

David PetersonMets

What drives it

Every plate appearance ends one of three ways: a strikeout (0 bases), a walk (1 base), or a ball in play worth its estimated bases.
The bar splits his runs prevented into those pieces, versus the league.
Fewer bases allowed is better. In the table, 100th percentile = best in MLB.

Ball-in-play basesWalk bases

Bases per batter faced

.357

.110

Luis Severino

.368

.088

League average

	Luis Severino	League	Percentile
Bases per ball in play(fewer = better)	.559	.536	28th
Walk rate(fewer = better)	11%	9%	33rd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)	23%	23%	49th

Contact allowed

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Luis Severino landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Hover a dot or a row to link the two; click to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Nolan SchanuelHome run

EV 106 mph · LA 32° · EB 3.9

05/21 vs Angels

vs Colson MontgomeryHome run

EV 107 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.8

04/18 vs White Sox

vs Andrew BenintendiHome run

EV 102 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.7

04/18 vs White Sox

vs Casey SchmittHome run

EV 106 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.6

05/16 vs Giants

vs Jake BurgerHome run

EV 114 mph · LA 21° · EB 3.4

04/13 vs Rangers

Luck check

Escaped damage 4 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.

vs Corey SeagerOutRobbed

EV 100 mph · LA 33° · EB 2.4

04/13 vs Rangers

Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Jung Hoo LeeSingleCheap hit

EV 81 mph · LA 47° · EB 0.1 · xBA .042

05/16 vs Giants

Contact & results against

2026 · 173 balls in play

What kind of contact he gives up, and what it turns into.
Top bar: the contact he allows (grounders, liners, fly balls, pop-ups). The thin bar below is league average.
Below, the rates hitters put up against him — each dot is his mark, the dashed line league median, the teal tick league’s best. Further right is better.
Hover or tab any bar or dot for exact values. Starred rows (*) are approximate.

Ground ballsLine drivesFly ballsPop-ups

GB 50%

LD 21%

FB 21%

League average

BABIP against

.317

lg .287best .129

AVG against*

.256

lg .238best .103

OBP against*

.347

lg .317best .153

SLG against*

.429

lg .386best .133

OPS against*

.775

lg .706best .337

WHIP

1.47

lg 1.30best 0.62

ERA

4.16

lg 3.92best 0.56

* Approximate: sacrifice flies and bunts aren't distinguishable in our data, so every ball in play counts as an at-bat. Slightly off official figures.

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	EB	Above replacement
Apr 29, 2026	Royals	2.8	+9.4
May 21, 2026	Angels	6.8	+6.2
Apr 8, 2026	Yankees	3.5	+4.0
Apr 24, 2026	Rangers	10.3	+3.4
May 10, 2026	Orioles	7.7	+2.5

Times through order

Times through the order

career 2022–2026

“Times through the order” = how many times a hitter has faced Luis Severino in the same game (1st, 2nd, or 3rd-plus time up).
Pitchers often fade the third time through, as hitters get more looks at their stuff.
Career splits: K% (higher is better), BB% (lower), and EB/PA — contact allowed per plate appearance (lower).
Whiskers show the uncertainty range. The 3rd-plus bucket has the fewest plate appearances, so its wider whiskers are expected.
The dashed line is the league average per bucket, so you can see if his drop-off is steeper or flatter than typical.

Strikeout rate (K%) (higher is better)

Walk rate (BB%) (lower is better)

EB / PA (lower is better)

The third time through, Luis Severino allows 0.035 more estimated bases per plate appearance than the first time (0.338 → 0.373) and his strikeout rate falls from 24.3% to 17.2%.

Pooled over 115 games · 2,688 batters faced · 2022–2026