Adrian Houser
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Houser has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.467 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 30th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (71st percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (4th percentile).
464 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
How to read this chart
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Adrian Houser.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
How to read this chart
| Adrian Houser | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .516 | .528 | 30th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 71st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 17% | 22% | 4th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Adrian Houser leans on his sinker (46% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 2.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 218 bases vs a replacement arm's 258 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
9.6 bases cost vs league average, across 1,705 pitches — 0.6 per 100.
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
How to read this chart
Adrian Houser's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
How to read this chart
By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.053
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.480 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.463 to 0.498, based on 282 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.548 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.548) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.437 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.418 to 0.455, based on 182 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.359 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.359) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 10 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
How to read this chart
Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Adrian Houser.
over 352 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
How to read this chart
ERA 4.08 · WHIP 1.31 · BABIP against 0.276 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs Blue JaysJul 7, 2026
18 BF · 5 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 3.6
- Above replacement
- +6.4
- vs TigersAug 7, 2026
22 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.5
- Above replacement
- +5.7
- vs AstrosAug 12, 2026
19 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.0
- Above replacement
- +4.6
- vs PadresJul 31, 2026
19 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.6
- Above replacement
- +4.0
- vs AngelsJul 26, 2026
14 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.7
- Above replacement
- +3.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Adrian Houser
HR allowed% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against down, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.