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Rob Refsnyder

2026
Mariners· DH · bats R · throws R· 129 PA
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Grade

How good he's been, and at what
B+better than 74% of hitters at creating bases

He's running below his established level this season — there's room to rebound.

Aggressive Power

Big pop, rarely takes a walk.

Strikeouts are holding this bat back

Rob Refsnyder creates bases at a better-than-most clip — better than 74% of qualified hitters. The strikeouts pile up, though — only 20% of qualified hitters whiff more often.

129 plate appearances · data through 2026-08-22.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 499 qualified hitters — 50+ plate appearances.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Rob Refsnyder.

Paul GoldschmidtYankeesCasey SchmittGiantsJordan WalkerCardinalsChristian WalkerAstros

Hitter type

What kind of hitter he is, next to the league

Hitter type

Very free-swinging hitter with below-average pop.

How to read this chart
Two skills separate hitting styles: not giving away at-bats (walk rate minus strikeout rate) and squaring the ball up when he does put it in play (hard-hit rate). Every dot is a qualified hitter this season; dot size tracks plate appearances. Click any dot to open that hitter's page.
 Rob RefsnyderLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better).434.50874th
Walk rate(higher = better)6%8%33rd
Strikeout rate(lower = better)29%23%20th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

Better vs LHP than vs RHP by 0.025 EB/PA (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.006 to +0.044

vs LHP108 PA0.486

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.486 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.461 to 0.511, based on 108 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.380 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.425 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHP rate (0.380) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHP21 PA0.461

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.461 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.437 to 0.487, based on 21 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.222 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.436 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHP rate (0.222) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4150.4410.4680.4950.522
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty bat (median 0.034). He's above the league median against both hands, so the weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

He sits in the league's top quarter vs lefties and the league's middle half vs righties.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all hitters against that hand.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.

How he hits

What happens when he puts a ball in play

He hits the ball to the pull side most often, and that's where his hardest contact goes.

Best batted balls

Where every ball Rob Refsnyder put in play landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Justin WrobleskiHome run
EV 101 mph · LA 29° · EB 3.9
07/28 vs Dodgers
vs JoJo RomeroHome run
EV 107 mph · LA 32° · EB 3.9
04/26 vs Cardinals
vs MacKenzie GoreHome run
EV 106 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.8
04/19 vs Rangers
vs Jack DreyerDouble
EV 112 mph · LA 21° · EB 3.3
07/28 vs Dodgers
vs Jeffrey SpringsHome run
EV 108 mph · LA 23° · EB 2.7
05/27 vs Athletics

Luck check

Robbed once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit that died in a glove.

vs Noah SchultzOutRobbed
EV 102 mph · LA 24° · EB 2.6
05/18 vs White Sox
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Performance by pitch type

2026 · 519 pitches

Bases he adds per 100 pitches of each type, against the league.

← below leagueabove league →
Four-Seam Fastball (175 pitches)
−1.7
Lg median −0.4Lg best +12.9
Changeup (75 pitches)
−1.1
Lg median −0.3Lg best +17.9
Sinker (71 pitches)
−2.4
Lg median −1.3Lg best +10.4
Slider (61 pitches)
−8.8
Lg median −0.5Lg best +13.2
Cutter (50 pitches)
−5.2
Lg median −0.3Lg best +16.7
Other (87 pitches)

+0.1 bases per 100 · no single-type league comparison

Above league medianBelowMiddle half of the leagueLg medianLg best
How to read this chart
Bases added per 100 pitches of each type — the same scale as the pitcher pages’ “saved/cost per 100”, from the hitter’s side. Every pitch counts: taking a ball adds value, whiffing loses it, and the pitch that ends the plate appearance scores its outcome against the count’s expectation. Values are bases vs the league count-average: +3.5 means his results against that pitch have been worth about 3.5 extra bases per 100 seen. Types with fewer than 50 pitches seen pool into “Other”.

Earned vs. actual

Rob Refsnyder's contact has earned about 6 more bases than he's actually been credited — his results have run unlucky so far.

Earned off his own contact35
Actually credited to him29

over 80 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball he puts in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases he was actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Swing

How fast he swings, and what he changes with two strikes. League tracking starts in 2024.

Swing at a glance

2026 · data through 2026-08-22
Bat speed · 217 swings
71.3 mph
Lg median 71.1 mph
Slowest: S. Kwan (61.9 mph)Fastest: J. Caminero (78.7 mph)
Lg median

Swings about as fast as most hitters. His swing is longer than most hitters', with a steeper attack angle than most. Cuts his swing down about as much as most hitters with two strikes. His bat travels on a steeper path than most.

Attack angle
12.5°
Lg median 9.4°
Swing length
7.6 ft
Lg median 7.3 ft
Swing path tilt
34.3°
Lg median 31.6°
Middle half of the league
How to read this chart
  • Competitive swings: bunts and checked-type swings under 50 mph are excluded, so these numbers sit a touch below the bat speeds Savant publishes, which use a different cut.
  • League tracking starts in 2024, and early 2024 has small gaps — about 93% of swings that season have a reading.
  • Swing length — how far the sweet spot of the bat travels during the swing.
  • Attack angle — the bat’s upward or downward tilt through the zone.
  • Swing path tilt — how steep the bat’s path is.
  • None of these is better or worse on its own — swing style trades power against contact (the fastest and slowest swings in the league both belong to stars).

How he sets up

Where he stands in the box and how his feet are set, next to the league-average setup.

How he sets up

A narrow base — feet just 25″ apart vs the 30″ league average.

Top-down batting stance vs league averagePitcher ↑

Month by month this season, from his setup about a second before each pitch.

Middle half of the leagueLg median
His feetLg avg
How to read this chart
  • Overhead view of the batter’s box. The dots are his feet, reconstructed from Statcast’s stance measurements — hip position, foot separation, and stance angle — about one second before the pitch. It’s an approximation of his setup, not his stride or swing.
  • Open means his front foot is pulled off the line to the plate; closed means it steps toward it. The average hitter sets up slightly open.
  • The change line above only appears for a sustained month-over-month move that clears normal Statcast noise by a wide margin.
  • The chart is his month-by-month average for whichever measure you pick, this season only. A month needs 25 tracked swings to appear, so an injured or platooned month can be missing. The shaded band and dashed line are where the middle half of hitters, and the median hitter, sat over their whole season.
  • On the angle chart, below zero is an open stance and above zero is a closed one — hover a point (or drag on a phone) and it says which in words.
  • Data through 2026-08-22.

Best games

His biggest games this year

Best games

His best games this season by bases above replacement.

Multi-season trends · Rob Refsnyder

HR% down, BB% down, K% up, Barrel% down, Hard-hit% down, Pull% up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.