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May 4, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Reds 49% · tied 14% · Cubs 37%

Cubs stole one

Reds did more to deserve the win, but Cubs took it 5–4.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.