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May 13, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Nationals 15% · tied 8% · Reds 77%

Nationals stole one

Reds did more to deserve the win, but Nationals took it 8–7.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.