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Orioles at Royals · Apr 21, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Orioles 40% · tied 13% · Royals 48%

Royals edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Royals came out ahead of Orioles 6-5.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.