Royals @ Twins, 07/30/2026

MLB Deserve-to-Win

Loading…

One moment while the latest numbers come in.

Royals @ Twins, 07/30/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win

← All games

Jul 30, 2026

Royals

Final

Twins

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Royals 86% · tied 8% · Twins 6%

How win probability is simulated

Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Numbers flank the metric label; bars grow outward from center, scaled within each row.Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

RoyalsTwins

Runs

16.3

Est. bases

6.8

Est. bases

16.3

6.8

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Royals lead on deserved runs by 3.0.

Twins deserved lead ↑

-6-4-20-3.0+1

Royals deserved lead ↓

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Royals

Twins

On contactWalks

How to read this chart

Ranked top to bottom. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart

“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Royals

Lucky

Unlucky

Twins

Lucky

Unlucky

How to read this chart

“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Royals

Twins

Royals

Twins

On contactWalks

How to read this chart

Sorted most to least. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Better — bases prevented

Worse — extra bases allowed

How to read this chart

“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

Royals pitchersTwins pitchers

How to read this chart

Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Royalspitching

Noah Cameron8.0 IP · 26 BF · 7 K · 2 BB

7.6 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 3.2 bases better than average on 22 pitches. 5 of his 15 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Lucas Erceg0.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB

0.7 bases cost

About an average night — +0.7 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Changeup3 thrown (14% tonight, season 14%)

+0.4 bases cost

Four-Seamer3 thrown (14% tonight, season 30%)

+0.1 bases cost

Matt Strahm0.0 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB

3.1 bases cost

Faced only 1 batter. Overall 3.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker2 thrown (67% tonight, season 14%)

−0.2 bases saved

Twinspitching

Bailey Ober6.0 IP · 24 BF · 3 K · 2 BB

4.5 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.5 expected bases. 4 of his 10 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Curveball1 thrown

+0.1 bases cost

Taylor Rogers1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB

0.5 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Cutter2 thrown (7% tonight, season 13%)

0.0 bases

Andrew Morris1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB

0.6 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup1 thrown (8% tonight, season 11%)

+0.2 bases cost

Yoendrys Gómez1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB

0.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Sinker2 thrown (10% tonight, season 11%)

−0.2 bases saved

Lg avg pitcher = 0

How to read this chart

Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
“Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Royals

Lucky

Unlucky

Twins

Lucky

Unlucky

How to read this chart

“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jac Caglianone hit it

Every ball Jac Caglianone hit this game, where it landed.

EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K113.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.7

How to read this chart

Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball73%

0.7 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed18%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Breaking9%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Bailey Ober

Actual

4.0

Deserved

4.2

Andrew Morris

Actual

1.0

Deserved

0.5

How to read this chart

The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Target Field.

Royals29 BIP · 3 BB/HBP

Twins20 BIP · 4 BB/HBP

EBlowhigh

Exit velosoft → hard

How to read this chart

Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Target Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

Player				Dir
Jac Caglianone	Home run	114	31°	Pull	3.9	▶
Kody Clemens	Home run	105	27°	Pull	3.6	▶
John Rave	Double	100	24°	Pull	2.2	▶
John Rave	Double	105	20°	Pull	2.0	▶
Salvador Perez	Out	93	32°	Pull	1.6	▶

Jac CaglianoneHome run

EV 114 · LA 31° · Pull · EB 3.9

▶

Kody ClemensHome run

EV 105 · LA 27° · Pull · EB 3.6

▶

John RaveDouble

EV 100 · LA 24° · Pull · EB 2.2

▶

John RaveDouble

EV 105 · LA 20° · Pull · EB 2.0

▶

Salvador PerezOut

EV 93 · LA 32° · Pull · EB 1.6

▶

How to read this table

Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Loading…

Team comparison

Deserved run flow by inning

Batting

Bases created

Bases above replacement

Batting luck diagnostic

Pitching

Bases given up

Bases above replacement

Pitching matchup

How each pitcher performed

Pitching luck diagnostic

Player spotlight

Where Jac Caglianone hit it

Cumulative bases through the game

Pitch mix

Matchups vs pitchers

Batted balls

Where every ball landed

Run distribution information