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Mar 28, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Pirates 37% · tied 16% · Mets 47%

Mets edged it

A near coin-flip on paper — Mets came out ahead of Pirates 4–2.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.