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Apr 30, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Nationals 17% · tied 11% · Mets 72%
Nationals stole one
Mets did more to deserve the win, but Nationals took it 5–4.
- This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
- Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.