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Nationals at Mets · Apr 30, 2026
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Nationals 17% · tied 11% · Mets 72%
Nationals stole one
Mets did more to deserve the win, but Nationals took it 5-4.
- This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
- The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.