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Tigers at Mets · May 12, 2026

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Tigers 39% · tied 14% · Mets 47%

Mets edged it

A near coin-flip on paper — Mets came out ahead of Tigers 10–2.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-to-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.