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Nationals at Phillies · Apr 1, 2026

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Nationals 10% · tied 7% · Phillies 83%

Phillies earned it

Phillies deserved to win and did, beating Nationals 6–5.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-to-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.