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Jun 5, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Reds 13% · tied 8% · Cardinals 78%
Cardinals earned it
Cardinals deserved to win and did, beating Reds 10–3.
- This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
- Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.