Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 22, 2026
D-backs
2
Final
Cardinals
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"D-backs 84% · tied 8% · Cardinals 8%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
3
Est. bases
17.0
6.6
Total bases
13
7
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
3
1
Walks/HBP
1
5
Strikeouts
2
4
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
1
1
Left on base
6
6
Errors
0
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Cardinals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Cardinals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

D-backspitching
Merrill Kelly6.0 IP · 26 BF · 2 K · 3 BB
2.6 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 20 pitches. 3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Sinker8 thrown (8% tonight, season 10%)
−0.1 bases saved
Taylor Clarke1.7 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases saved

Struggled to find the zone (52% strikes).

Cutter5 thrown (19% tonight, season 19%)
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker5 thrown (19% tonight, season 20%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown
0.0 bases
Jonathan Loáisiga0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Cutter1 thrown (25% tonight, season 6%)
−0.1 bases saved
Cardinalspitching
Andre Pallante6.0 IP · 24 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Knuckle Curve got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.5 expected bases.

Splitter3 thrown · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Ryne Stanek0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.1 expected bases. Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker2 thrown (18% tonight, season 10%)
−0.2 bases saved
JoJo Romero1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup1 thrown (11% tonight, season 18%)
0.0 bases
George Soriano0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Changeup1 thrown (20% tonight, season 30%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown (20% tonight, season 29%)
−0.1 bases saved
Riley O'Brien1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Corbin Carroll hit it

Every ball Corbin Carroll hit this game, where it landed.

336'406'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −1.7 bases behind deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K112.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 3Deserved: 4.7
PA 1 vs Andre Pallante: single — 1.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Andre Pallante: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Andre Pallante: double — 3.6 deserved basesPA 4 vs JoJo Romero: out — 0.1 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball53%

3.7 deserved bases on contact

Breaking35%

1.1 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed12%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Andre Pallante
Actual
3.0
Deserved
4.6
JoJo Romero
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Busch Stadium.

D-backs32 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
Cardinals24 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Busch Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information