MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Reds @ Rangers, 04/03/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 3, 2026
Reds
5
Final
Game 822919
Rangers
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Reds
53%
· tied 16%
·
Rangers
31%
Reds earned it
Reds deserved to win and did, beating Rangers 5–3.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.