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Twins at Nationals · May 5, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Twins 76% · tied 9% · Nationals 15%

Twins earned it

Twins deserved to win and did, beating Nationals 11-3.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.