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Mets at Nationals · May 20, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Mets 38% · tied 14% · Nationals 48%

Nationals edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Nationals came out ahead of Mets 8-4.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.