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Mets at Nationals · May 21, 2026
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Mets 66% · tied 14% · Nationals 19%
Mets earned it
Mets deserved to win and did, beating Nationals 2-1.
- This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
- The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.