MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cubs @ Padres, 04/14/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 14, 2025
Cubs
4
Final
Game 778315
Padres
10
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Cubs
18%
· tied 11%
·
Padres
71%
Padres earned it
Padres deserved to win and did, beating Cubs 10–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.