MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Marlins @ Cubs, 05/14/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 14, 2025
Marlins
3
Final
Game 777921
Cubs
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Marlins
87%
· tied 7%
·
Cubs
6%
Marlins earned it
Marlins deserved to win and did, beating Cubs 3–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.