MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Guardians @ Reds, 05/18/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 18, 2025
Guardians
1
Final
Game 777874
Reds
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Guardians
15%
· tied 12%
·
Reds
73%
Reds earned it
Reds deserved to win and did, beating Guardians 3–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.