MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Orioles @ Rays, 06/18/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 18, 2025
Orioles
8
Final
Game 777463
Rays
12
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Orioles
26%
· tied 13%
·
Rays
61%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Orioles 12–8.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.