MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Nationals @ Padres, 06/24/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 24, 2025
Nationals
3
Final
Game 777372
Padres
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Nationals
13%
· tied 13%
·
Padres
75%
Padres earned it
Padres deserved to win and did, beating Nationals 4–3.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.