MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Twins @ Marlins, 07/03/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 3, 2025
Twins
1
Final
Game 777263
Marlins
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Twins
20%
· tied 19%
·
Marlins
62%
Marlins earned it
Marlins deserved to win and did, beating Twins 4–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.