MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rangers @ Padres, 07/06/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 6, 2025
Rangers
1
Final
Game 777207
Padres
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Rangers
2%
· tied 4%
·
Padres
94%
Padres earned it
Padres deserved to win and did, beating Rangers 4–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.