MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Marlins @ Orioles, 07/11/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 11, 2025
Marlins
2
Final
Game 777157
Orioles
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Marlins
5%
· tied 8%
·
Orioles
87%
Orioles earned it
Orioles deserved to win and did, beating Marlins 5–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.