MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Phillies @ Padres, 07/11/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 11, 2025
Phillies
2
Final
Game 777139
Padres
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Phillies
22%
· tied 13%
·
Padres
65%
Padres earned it
Padres deserved to win and did, beating Phillies 4–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.