MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Astros @ Marlins, 08/04/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 4, 2025
Astros
8
Final
Game 776875
Marlins
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Astros
58%
· tied 15%
·
Marlins
28%
Astros earned it
Astros deserved to win and did, beating Marlins 8–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.