MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Padres @ D-backs, 08/04/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 4, 2025
Padres
2
Final
Game 776873
D-backs
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Padres
2%
· tied 3%
·
D-backs
95%
D-backs earned it
D-backs deserved to win and did, beating Padres 6–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.