MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rays @ Mariners, 08/10/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 10, 2025
Rays
3
Final
Game 776791
Mariners
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Rays
12%
· tied 11%
·
Mariners
77%
Mariners earned it
Mariners deserved to win and did, beating Rays 6–3.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.