MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rays @ Athletics, 08/11/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 11, 2025
Rays
7
Final
Game 776787
Athletics
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Rays
73%
· tied 10%
·
Athletics
17%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Athletics 7–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.