MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cardinals @ Rays, 08/22/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 22, 2025
Cardinals
6
Final
Game 776633
Rays
10
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Cardinals
4%
· tied 4%
·
Rays
91%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Cardinals 10–6.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.