MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Marlins @ Nationals, 09/01/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Sep 1, 2025
Marlins
0
Final
Game 776498
Nationals
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Marlins
12%
· tied 16%
·
Nationals
72%
Nationals earned it
Nationals deserved to win and did, beating Marlins 2–0.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.