MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rays @ Cubs, 09/13/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Sep 13, 2025
Rays
5
Final
Game 776338
Cubs
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Rays
75%
· tied 11%
·
Cubs
13%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Cubs 5–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.