MLB Deserve-to-Win
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D-backs @ Padres, 09/28/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Sep 28, 2025
D-backs
4
Final
Game 776136
Padres
12
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
D-backs
23%
· tied 12%
·
Padres
66%
Padres earned it
Padres deserved to win and did, beating D-backs 12–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.