Welcome to the analysis section
A new home for longer looks at what the deserve-to-win model is seeing — and why.
July 24, 2026 · dtwbaseball
dtwbaseball has always been charts first: every game, team, and player page shows you what the model thinks, updated daily. What it hasn't had is a place to slow down and explain — to walk through a team's rotation, a hitter's changed approach, or a stretch of luck, at article length.
This section is that place. It will hold two kinds of writing:
- Articles — deeper dives into a team, a player, or a question the model is well-placed to answer.
- Quick hits — short, newsletter-style notes for when something interesting happens that doesn't need a thousand words.
Everything here is built on the same numbers as the rest of the site — the deserve-to-win model that replays every game ten thousand times and asks what should have happened. When a post mentions a player, it links straight to their live page, so you can see how the story has aged since it was written.
If you're new to the site, the About page explains the model in four steps.