MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Giants @ Phillies, 04/16/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 16, 2025
Giants
11
Final
Game 778296
Phillies
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Giants
78%
· tied 8%
·
Phillies
13%
Giants earned it
Giants deserved to win and did, beating Phillies 11–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.