MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Reds @ Orioles, 04/19/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 19, 2025
Reds
5
Final
Game 778262
Orioles
9
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Reds
28%
· tied 10%
·
Orioles
62%
Orioles earned it
Orioles deserved to win and did, beating Reds 9–5.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.