MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Mets @ Nationals, 04/28/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 28, 2025
Mets
19
Final
Game 778138
Nationals
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Mets
95%
· tied 2%
·
Nationals
3%
Mets earned it
Mets deserved to win and did, beating Nationals 19–5.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.