MLB Deserve-to-Win
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Search players and teams
Loading…
One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Nationals @ Reds, 05/03/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 3, 2025
Nationals
11
Final
Game 778077
Reds
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Nationals
86%
· tied 5%
·
Reds
9%
Nationals earned it
Nationals deserved to win and did, beating Reds 11–6.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.