MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Astros @ Rangers, 05/18/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 18, 2025
Astros
4
Final
Game 777869
Rangers
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Astros
66%
· tied 15%
·
Rangers
19%
Astros earned it
Astros deserved to win and did, beating Rangers 4–3.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.