MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Astros @ Athletics, 06/19/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 19, 2025
Astros
4
Final
Game 777441
Athletics
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Astros
33%
· tied 14%
·
Athletics
52%
Athletics earned it
Athletics deserved to win and did, beating Astros 6–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.