MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Reds @ Cardinals, 06/22/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 22, 2025
Reds
4
Final
Game 777407
Cardinals
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Reds
49%
· tied 28%
·
Cardinals
23%
Reds earned it
Reds deserved to win and did, beating Cardinals 4–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.