MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Yankees @ Reds, 06/24/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 24, 2025
Yankees
4
Final
Game 777385
Reds
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Yankees
28%
· tied 18%
·
Reds
54%
Reds earned it
Reds deserved to win and did, beating Yankees 5–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.