MLB Deserve-to-Win
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Search players and teams
Loading…
One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Phillies @ Astros, 06/26/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jun 26, 2025
Phillies
1
Final
Game 777350
Astros
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Phillies
16%
· tied 44%
·
Astros
40%
Astros earned it
Astros deserved to win and did, beating Phillies 2–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.