MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Yankees @ Mets, 07/04/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 4, 2025
Yankees
5
Final
Game 777250
Mets
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Yankees
25%
· tied 14%
·
Mets
61%
Mets earned it
Mets deserved to win and did, beating Yankees 6–5.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.